Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Insight Update.
Into H2 2017, we continue to forecast stronger world growth for the year at 2.8%, up from 2.3% in 2016 and the strongest performance since 2011. However, over the past month we have noticed a change to trends in the major economies, with the US data indicating a weakening of growth as the year progresses, while the prospects for the eurozone, Japan and China are improving. We now forecast US growth to come in at 2.0% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, while the eurozone will edge up from 1.7% to 1.8%, and Japan from 1.0% to 1.3%; but China will slow from 6.7% to 6.3%.
The weaker outlook for the US has raised market concerns about the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate change. In June US interest rates were raised for a second time in 2017, with the Fed signalling one further hike this year. In addition, it indicated that it is liable to start unwinding its bloated balance sheet by year-end. While we are maintaining our forecast in line with the Fed, further delays in timing – out to December, as we expect – could hold off a return of volatility in global capital and currency markets, in turn maintaining business confidence until late Q4 at least.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
Greece
The economy is likely to have expanded further in Q2 but downside risks remain.
Japan
Japan signs a major free-trade agreement with the EU.
Mexico
The central bank tightens monetary policy as robust inflation persists.
To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.
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