November 2017: Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Insight Update

Global growth for 2017 is set to come in at 2.9%, the highest level since 2011, and will improve further to 3.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Our positive view is supported by the IMF’s October upgrade of its forecasts. Furthermore, the WTO also sharply revised upwards its forecasts for world trade in 2017 on the back of a strong first half performance. More generally, employment data are strong, and commodity prices have rebounded from their 2016 lows. The latter favours the outlook for commodity-exporting countries but also the incentive for inventory-building globally; inventory growth in Q3 in the US was a sizeable boost to the real GDP growth first estimate of 3% (annualised). Markets also appear to have built in fairly stable expectations around the normalisation of central bank policy as quantitative easing is wound down and interest rates rise, as shown by the neutral FX and stock response to the ECB policy announcement in October.

Meanwhile, political risk, although remaining elevated, has eased to a degree since the start of 2017. In particular, the checks and balances of the US political system have ensured more policy certainty than initially predicted following the election of President Trump. Although Brexit negotiations are proving inconclusive at present, businesses continue to operate under existing EU rules, ensuring stability in our short-term forecast period; while the apocalyptic prospect of a US-North Korea nuclear war seems delayed as both consider their how their interests lie in détente, even as President Trump’s visit to Asia in November sees a US military build-up in the region.

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

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Costa Rica

Advances in technology and telecommunications raise Costa Rica's global competitiveness

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United Kingdom

An interest rate rise creates more headwinds for the economy.

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Vietnam

Economic growth rebounds in Q3.

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