December 2017: Country Risk Update

Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Insight Update

We are currently forecasting that global growth will continue to strengthen in 2018. Growth came in at 2.4% in 2016, the lowest level since the 2009 contraction of 1.7%, but is estimated to have rebounded to 3.0% in 2017 and will improve further to 3.2% in 2018, the highest level since the 2010 rebound from the 2008-09 recession. Thereafter, it is forecast to remain around this level until 2022, still significantly below the levels achieved in 2005-07 (when it averaged 4.2%).

The main drivers of the improved position in 2018 are: the commodity-exporting emerging regional economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, where growth will increase to an estimated 0.9% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018; the Middle East and North Africa (up from an estimated 2.5% in 2017 to 3.5% in 2018); and Sub-Saharan Africa (up from 2.2% in 2017 to 3.0% in 2018). Improvement will also be seen is North America, with growth rising from an estimated 2.3% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2018, while growth will stagnate in Western and Central Europe, at 2.2%. However, growth will slow in Asia-Pacific (from 4.7% to 4.6%) and in Eastern Europe and Central Asia from (from 4.4% to 3.1%).

This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.

D&B Country Insight Snapshots

Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.

Argentina

The government's structural reforms receive a boost.

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Belgium

The EU-Japan free-trade deal could increase opportunities for Belgium.

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Indonesia

Near-term economic prospects look favourable.

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To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.

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D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.

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