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We are currently forecasting that global growth will continue to strengthen in 2018. Growth came in at 2.4% in 2016, the lowest level since the 2009 contraction of 1.7%, but is estimated to have rebounded to 3.0% in 2017 and will improve further to 3.2% in 2018, the highest level since the 2010 rebound from the 2008-09 recession. Thereafter, it is forecast to remain around this level until 2022, still significantly below the levels achieved in 2005-07 (when it averaged 4.2%).
The main drivers of the improved position in 2018 are: the commodity-exporting emerging regional economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, where growth will increase to an estimated 0.9% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018; the Middle East and North Africa (up from an estimated 2.5% in 2017 to 3.5% in 2018); and Sub-Saharan Africa (up from 2.2% in 2017 to 3.0% in 2018). Improvement will also be seen is North America, with growth rising from an estimated 2.3% in 2017 to 2.5% in 2018, while growth will stagnate in Western and Central Europe, at 2.2%. However, growth will slow in Asia-Pacific (from 4.7% to 4.6%) and in Eastern Europe and Central Asia from (from 4.4% to 3.1%).
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
The government's structural reforms receive a boost.
The EU-Japan free-trade deal could increase opportunities for Belgium.
Near-term economic prospects look favourable.
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