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Although global growth for 2017 is set to come in at 3.0%, the highest level since 2011, and will improve further to 3.1% in 2018, this remains well below the levels experienced before the global financial crisis. As a result, the normalisation of central bank policies continues to dominate the market outlook. We expect a further 0.25 basis point rise in US interest rates in December, with at least a further three rate hikes in 2018. Meanwhile, in November the ECB announced a halving of its asset purchases from EUR60bn per month to EUR30bn, which will run until at least September 2018. We do not expect an ECB interest rate to rise until well after the ending of quantitative easing, i.e. around Q3 2019.
In 2018, we expect growth in most major economies to strengthen. US growth is forecast to climb to 2.3% (from an expected 2.0% in 2017), while growth in Euroland will increase to 2.2% (from 2.1%). Similarly, a positive trajectory will be experienced in Russia (1.8% in 2017 to 1.9% in 2018), Brazil (0.7% to 2.0%) and India (6.6% to 7.6%). In contrast, growth will slow in the UK (1.6% to 1.3%), Japan (1.5% to 1.3%) and China (6.9% to 6.4%).
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Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
New evidence in the Odebrecht scandal puts more strain on political stability.
Low inflation sends the krona tumbling.
The killing of ex-President Saleh is unlikely to bring peace any closer.
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