Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Insight Update.
Although real GDP growth for 2018 remains the strongest in almost a decade, risks to our forecasts remain on the downside as political factors threaten to undermine the economic outlook. Over the past month risks in relation to an outbreak of trade wars have intensified following President Trump’s orders to raise tariffs, ostensibly to reduce the US current account deficit, in particular with China. The US tariffs originally targeted steel and aluminium, but were extended in late March to include ten sectors that China has prioritised in recent years. Although there has been considerable media and market attention on ‘trade war’ risks, China has adopted a relatively restrained, largely rhetorical approach to date, while the US provisionally exempted Canada and other allies. As a result, we consider the risks to be lower than dramatic headlines would have us believe.
Meanwhile, Brexit negotiations have taken a positive step forward as transition period terms have been agreed between the two sides, although the outcome is far from certain. In addition, oil prices broke the USD70 per barrel mark in March, as the risk to the Iran nuclear deals keeps mounting and output in Venezuela is curtailed by internal political problems. If sustained this will consolidate commodity prices and firm inflation pressures globally.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
Martin Vizcarra’s presidency could help restore some much-needed stability.
Violent attacks prompt an island-wide state of emergency.
Dun & Bradstreet upgrades its rating outlook for the UK from 'deteriorating' to 'stable'.
To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.
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