Welcome to the latest issue of D&B's Country Insight Update.
In line with the IMF and World Bank, we are currently forecasting strengthening growth in 2018: we forecast an expansion of 3.2%. If this level were achieved, it would be the strongest global growth since the 2010 rebound from the 2008-09 contraction. In regional terms, the outlook for North America (in particular the US) is now improving, as is Western Europe, while we have recently upgraded our growth forecast for China – although we remain concerned about credit quality in both China and India. As a result, our outlook for Asia Pacific remains at ‘stable’ for the present. Furthermore, strengthening commodity prices will boost growth prospects in the commodity-exporting emerging economies.
One caveat to this optimism is the potential for trade disputes to disrupt growth prospects. In particular, NAFTA is still being renegotiated and could yet collapse, the end result of negotiations over Brexit remain uncertain, and the threat of a US-China trade war persists. More positively, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which looked set to fail, has been renegotiated (albeit without the US) and is set to be signed in March, highlighting that multilateral trade and investment deals remain possible.
This complimentary newsletter from D&B's Country Insight Services group has been put together by their team of experts using the most up-to-date information to provide a snapshot of the latest macro market risk situation, and provides an excellent overview for those exposed to cross-border credit or investment risks.
D&B Country Insight Snapshots
Designed with the help of our customers these reports build on the key areas assessed by 'D&B's Country Insight Model' and deliver a perfect balance between mitigating risk exposure and providing insight into new opportunities.
Pension reform remains elusive.
The credit environment outlook improves as business failures decrease.
A populist budget aimed at rural voters could pose inflationary risks.
To learn more about how these improvements have been designed to meet your needs when trading overseas, please use the contact details below.
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D&B Country Insight Services provides analysis on over 130 countries worldwide and its products are available for purchase online by D&B subscribers.
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